The war has transitioned into a phase of attrition, serving the political goals of Putin and his adapted warfare strategy. This perspective was shared by Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center, during a briefing on «National Security Threats and Defense Trends in Ukraine: An Analytical Overview of Q2 2024 Trends.»
Key Takeaways
| Key Point | Details |
|---|---|
| War Transition | The war has moved into a phase of attrition, aligning with Putin’s strategy. |
| Lack of Strategic Breakthroughs | Neither side has the capability to conduct operations that would decisively change the battlefield situation. |
| Daily Assaults | Russia’s daily assault tactics yield limited tactical gains but serve Putin’s political goals. |
| Internal and External Goals | The war of attrition meets both internal propaganda needs and external narratives of Russian invincibility. |
Melnyk stated, “The war has shifted into a war of attrition over the last twelve months. Ukrainian counteroffensives and Russian attempts to advance or counterattack have shown that neither side currently possesses the ability to carry out an offensive operation of a scale that would radically change the battlefield situation or lead to a strategic breakthrough. The war of attrition will continue.”
He further explained that the enemy’s daily assault actions yield very limited tactical gains and come with high losses, but they effectively serve the creeping advance of the enemy and Putin’s political goals.
“Russia’s daily assault tactics, while costly, remain effective. The Russian creeping advance continues. The cost of captured territories and settlements for Russia is extremely high. It is clear that Ukraine also pays a huge price in human lives and lost territories. One might think that the cost Russia pays on the battlefield and through sanctions would lead them to conclude this strategy is flawed. However, this might be exactly what suits Putin. Tactical gains, while limited or operationally insignificant, serve Putin’s political goals and his adapted modern war strategy,” Melnyk noted.
Melnyk explained the internal and external goals the Kremlin dictator achieves through this war of attrition and resource-intensive frontline assaults.
“For the domestic audience, daily reports filled with updates about ‘SVO heroes’ advancing several hundred meters and capturing some settlement create a constant illusion of victory among the Russian population. No one cares about the significance of the settlement or its operational value. This illusion prevents active resistance by the Russian population, who might otherwise see the futility of the war. Externally, the narrative that Russia is unbeatable and will continue to advance, albeit slowly, is constantly reinforced,” Melnyk said.
Detailed Analysis
Internal Impact
The war of attrition keeps the Russian population under the illusion of constant victory. Daily reports of minor advancements help maintain support for the war effort and prevent civil unrest or dissent.
External Impact
Externally, the ongoing war sends a message of Russian persistence and invincibility. This narrative aims to discourage external intervention and create a sense of inevitability about Russian dominance.
Conclusion
The war of attrition, while costly for both sides, aligns perfectly with Putin’s political and strategic goals. It sustains internal support through perceived victories and projects an image of unyielding strength to the outside world.
